This post is a perfect reminder of why you’re so great, Derek: You find important stuff, and you contextualize it masterfully. Missed reading you! Also, congrats and welcome back!
lol i had to click in to see how you could possibly find the time to READ!!! but then i saw audiobooks. everything is on audiobooks now since my son was born 3 years ago. the eyes can only handle so much!!
Thanks for a wonderful piece; as always, your dissemenation of all the news, writing, and themes really lends a balanced perspective. I feel I learn much, think deeply, introspect, and most of all, feel more grounded and hopeful after reading your work. Thanks again and congrats on the new baby!
Welcome back Derek, you were missed! And congrats on the Dad-dom.
Regarding AI and science. I already see the effect in academic hiring. We have talented young people working in established fields, who will tell you that in practice AI can't be applied to their problem for lack of data. Their work is interesting and important, and they get passed over for someone using AI to innovate in a data heavy field that is increasingly crowded. Of course, there has always been herd following.
In counterpoint, I see the AI revolution as being accompanied by a revolution in Mathematics. A whole slew of new math tools and language were developed (and open source coded) to enable the required AI development. I would say that every time a new branch of mathematics has been discovered, shortly thereafter it has proven useful to model something that was previously not understood... IOW to lead to new scientific insights outside of math.
So I entirely expect a wave of deep, fundamental science insights to be coming shortly, not empowered by AI, but enabled by the mathematical tools used to build AI.
I've heard the argument before about how the USSR (or FDR) saved capitalism and I (mostly) do not buy it. Think about the changes in the US that happened since Lenin started agitating in 1910:
Federal Reserve founded. Result: the Great Depression (but see below)
Income Tax created. Result: massive growth of the federal government taking 50%+ of income.
Prohibition. Result: organized crime became endemic, government decided poisoning citizens ok.
Innumerable "recovery" acts in 30s. Result: prolonging the depression, arresting farmers for growing own food.
Wage controls with insurance exception. Result: employee-sponsored health insurance becomes norm, preventing people from leaving employer.
Many more such examples, but the bottom line is these changes did not "save" capitalism, they badly damaged it.
Raising income taxes on the extreme wealthy is clearly not the answer. No serious thinking person knows that.
But I feel that I’m alone in thinking the answer is inheritance tax. Yes death taxes. Extreme wealth passed on to descendants is a curse. See 17th century etc.I don’t pretend to how but surely it can be designed appropriately and create carve outs. Think about it, there is no reason why a person who did nothing to receive gargantuan wealth.
Congrats and welcome back! One idea for a post as you get back into the swing of things: I’m always curious about the media diets of people I read, to include where you’re finding studies you cite, how you decide what books to add to your list, and what discovery looks like for you. Maybe now is an interesting time for that as you return to writing, food for thought!
The AI gym vs. job is a good one. Or I think of it this way: if there is a task you might hire someone else to do for you and it can be done by AI, that's basically the same thing but cheaper, always available, etc. Of course the problem is that some people would like to have everything done for them, to never go to the gym, and so the unwelcome toil of work is actually good for keeping them mentally fit.
Hey Derek, welcome back and welcome to the club—I’m just wrapping up parental leave for my third and fourth kids (surprise twins) and am excited to dive back in to work and professional life.
One question for you: have you read “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Will Die”? It’s an AI doom narrative with some interesting ideas, and I’d love to hear your take on how worried we should be. I’m generally a techno-optimist, but I did find many of the arguments compelling.
Some surprising and interesting stats in here! Looking forward to seeing more analysis on #10 (paging @noahpinion).
On #11, I think that’s a bit too simple an analogy. There may be some spaces where you want to completely exclude AI—perhaps to try and see what your brain can come up with without being directly assisted or influenced by AI. But to me it’s more about how you use AI rather than if you use AI.
The way I see it, there are two primary ways of using AI—1) to have it complete tasks for you and 2) to have it help you raise the bar, that is to accomplish more than you possibly could on your own.
(1) is extremely useful for those tasks I don’t care to improve independent of AI (much of my housework, personal and professional organization and admin) and frees me up to spend more time doing the things that make me feel most alive!
(2) can help me and my collaborators do the things we love in ways we never thought possible, and to move quickly from just planning to actually executing and building!
Now, just as with any other technology, I think it’s healthy to be able to disconnect in some spaces and times. Just as sometimes I sit around with friends and family and we wonder about certain things that are completely knowable with a quick internet search, but sometimes we just don’t. More fun staying present, paying the price of ignorance to avoid the distractions and just focus on the curiosity and wonder that we share, allowing our minds to run and the jokes to flow.
I’ll try and think of a better analogy for you. Maybe a starter for my own blog post! Thanks for getting the mind running!
Ok now I'm quickly feeling that tension--I start thinking about an alternative analogy... but I feel my mind being pulled towards the ChatGPT and Claude sites. As someone who loves to just spend time thinking about all sorts of things in the world around me (hence why I love your work), LLMs have become incredible, always on, never tiring thinking partners. They're not as good as my real life thinking partners among friends, family, and colleagues, but they're not always around or in the mood. Those sycophantic robots are pretty good at stretching my thinking and filling my knowledge gaps. Ahhhh! Good thing to reflect on for sure...
Welcome back! I was going to joke that you hadn't missed much. Then I realized that if you had managed a news blackout and went to NYT today, you would have no idea that we seemed close to invading Greenland, and that we did (briefly) invade Venezuela to capture their President! Already out of the news cycle. Wild times. Glad you're back to help us make some sense of it all.
This post is a perfect reminder of why you’re so great, Derek: You find important stuff, and you contextualize it masterfully. Missed reading you! Also, congrats and welcome back!
Glad you are back and congratulations on the baby. Your insights were missed.
You nailed it with this one. Congratulations, but I’m thankful you’re back.
lol i had to click in to see how you could possibly find the time to READ!!! but then i saw audiobooks. everything is on audiobooks now since my son was born 3 years ago. the eyes can only handle so much!!
Thanks for a wonderful piece; as always, your dissemenation of all the news, writing, and themes really lends a balanced perspective. I feel I learn much, think deeply, introspect, and most of all, feel more grounded and hopeful after reading your work. Thanks again and congrats on the new baby!
Welcome back Derek, you were missed! And congrats on the Dad-dom.
Regarding AI and science. I already see the effect in academic hiring. We have talented young people working in established fields, who will tell you that in practice AI can't be applied to their problem for lack of data. Their work is interesting and important, and they get passed over for someone using AI to innovate in a data heavy field that is increasingly crowded. Of course, there has always been herd following.
In counterpoint, I see the AI revolution as being accompanied by a revolution in Mathematics. A whole slew of new math tools and language were developed (and open source coded) to enable the required AI development. I would say that every time a new branch of mathematics has been discovered, shortly thereafter it has proven useful to model something that was previously not understood... IOW to lead to new scientific insights outside of math.
So I entirely expect a wave of deep, fundamental science insights to be coming shortly, not empowered by AI, but enabled by the mathematical tools used to build AI.
I've heard the argument before about how the USSR (or FDR) saved capitalism and I (mostly) do not buy it. Think about the changes in the US that happened since Lenin started agitating in 1910:
Federal Reserve founded. Result: the Great Depression (but see below)
Income Tax created. Result: massive growth of the federal government taking 50%+ of income.
Prohibition. Result: organized crime became endemic, government decided poisoning citizens ok.
Innumerable "recovery" acts in 30s. Result: prolonging the depression, arresting farmers for growing own food.
Wage controls with insurance exception. Result: employee-sponsored health insurance becomes norm, preventing people from leaving employer.
Many more such examples, but the bottom line is these changes did not "save" capitalism, they badly damaged it.
Congratulations and welcome back! And thanks for the recs and links.
Did you happen to pause paid subscriptions during your leave?
Re: Inequality of wealth
Raising income taxes on the extreme wealthy is clearly not the answer. No serious thinking person knows that.
But I feel that I’m alone in thinking the answer is inheritance tax. Yes death taxes. Extreme wealth passed on to descendants is a curse. See 17th century etc.I don’t pretend to how but surely it can be designed appropriately and create carve outs. Think about it, there is no reason why a person who did nothing to receive gargantuan wealth.
Congrats and welcome back! One idea for a post as you get back into the swing of things: I’m always curious about the media diets of people I read, to include where you’re finding studies you cite, how you decide what books to add to your list, and what discovery looks like for you. Maybe now is an interesting time for that as you return to writing, food for thought!
Welcome back. I’ve missed your insight.
The AI gym vs. job is a good one. Or I think of it this way: if there is a task you might hire someone else to do for you and it can be done by AI, that's basically the same thing but cheaper, always available, etc. Of course the problem is that some people would like to have everything done for them, to never go to the gym, and so the unwelcome toil of work is actually good for keeping them mentally fit.
Hey Derek, welcome back and welcome to the club—I’m just wrapping up parental leave for my third and fourth kids (surprise twins) and am excited to dive back in to work and professional life.
One question for you: have you read “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Will Die”? It’s an AI doom narrative with some interesting ideas, and I’d love to hear your take on how worried we should be. I’m generally a techno-optimist, but I did find many of the arguments compelling.
Welcome back Derek. Looking forward to reading these articles and listening to Plain English episodes. I’ve had “PE withdrawal”
Some surprising and interesting stats in here! Looking forward to seeing more analysis on #10 (paging @noahpinion).
On #11, I think that’s a bit too simple an analogy. There may be some spaces where you want to completely exclude AI—perhaps to try and see what your brain can come up with without being directly assisted or influenced by AI. But to me it’s more about how you use AI rather than if you use AI.
The way I see it, there are two primary ways of using AI—1) to have it complete tasks for you and 2) to have it help you raise the bar, that is to accomplish more than you possibly could on your own.
(1) is extremely useful for those tasks I don’t care to improve independent of AI (much of my housework, personal and professional organization and admin) and frees me up to spend more time doing the things that make me feel most alive!
(2) can help me and my collaborators do the things we love in ways we never thought possible, and to move quickly from just planning to actually executing and building!
Now, just as with any other technology, I think it’s healthy to be able to disconnect in some spaces and times. Just as sometimes I sit around with friends and family and we wonder about certain things that are completely knowable with a quick internet search, but sometimes we just don’t. More fun staying present, paying the price of ignorance to avoid the distractions and just focus on the curiosity and wonder that we share, allowing our minds to run and the jokes to flow.
I’ll try and think of a better analogy for you. Maybe a starter for my own blog post! Thanks for getting the mind running!
Ok now I'm quickly feeling that tension--I start thinking about an alternative analogy... but I feel my mind being pulled towards the ChatGPT and Claude sites. As someone who loves to just spend time thinking about all sorts of things in the world around me (hence why I love your work), LLMs have become incredible, always on, never tiring thinking partners. They're not as good as my real life thinking partners among friends, family, and colleagues, but they're not always around or in the mood. Those sycophantic robots are pretty good at stretching my thinking and filling my knowledge gaps. Ahhhh! Good thing to reflect on for sure...
Welcome back! I was going to joke that you hadn't missed much. Then I realized that if you had managed a news blackout and went to NYT today, you would have no idea that we seemed close to invading Greenland, and that we did (briefly) invade Venezuela to capture their President! Already out of the news cycle. Wild times. Glad you're back to help us make some sense of it all.