I really appreciate this type of post. It's what I used to try to 'manually' get out of reading a half dozen other Substacks and spending too much time on Twitter. A lot of these are little gems that enrich our understanding of larger themes (or are seeds for topics that get debated a bunch). Just the right amount of detail and contextualization. And fully agree on the world philosophy!
Love the last one. It’s the message in Hans Rosling’s Factfulness. We have made a ton of progress. We should celebrate that progress and acknowledge we can do better
Derek, Did Covid "vaccines" prevent infection? No. Did they stop the transmission of infection? No. Then how do you say the Covid pandemic "ended when it did largely because of vaccines."
How carefully do they word the question on getting your news from "news articles" versus "social" media? Like if I get my news from a curated X list of the NYT, WaPo, and WSJ, and I respond to the poll "social media," I'd pretty clearly still argue that is "news articles" even if I'm never clicking the links.
Regarding #5 and alcohol: former WaPo wine critic Dave McIntyre, who has his own great Substack, calls this the New Prohibition era. As I commented on one of his recent Substack articles, considering wine and beer have been consumed for more than 8000 years by humans, it must truly be a wonder to physicians and scientists who promote abstinence that the species has survived this long.
Alcohol has been consumed for 8000+ years. The internet has been "consumed" for 30, and the iPhone for 18. Which of the three (Alcohol, Internet, iPhone) has been safety tested the most? And the funny part is while young adults eschew alcohol, they use the internet and smart phones more than anyone!
One: 40 years ago you needed a machine shop and a large staff to run a paper mill, my uncle worked in one. They constantly had to repair pumps and machines of all types. Today the entire production handles higher volume at 1/100th the staff. Water pumps don’t break down every few months, they break down every few decades - quality is staggering. You don’t have a machine shop and staff at near the same level.
We won’t “return” to manufacturing with low quality machinery so we won’t return to those kinds of employment setups.
Two: AI is a very peculiar tool, in that it is a universal simulator. If you run call centers it’s a call center agent. If you run procurement it can write contracts, RFI, RFP, RFQ. It can build marketing plans, sales proposals, write programs, create orders, on and on.
As secretarial pools are a thing of the past, jobs will be replaced. It’s not quite tractor or a spreadsheet, it’s a person.
You should do more book interviews than Ezra :-) I also think it's insulting to tell Zoomers they're having less sex because they're drinking less alcohol.
On Tyler Cowens show, Steven Pinker made reference to you as a quote stirring liberal figure quote, although he then noted that there aren't enough great literal thinkers under the age of 55. What is missing from the discourse that would have the greater pull on people who are in there 30s and 40s to grapple constructively liberal ideas dismiss them out of hand because a lot of these questions appear in the mainstream discourse to be " asked and answered ", and why did culture seem to stop rewarding liberalism as a point of prestige?
This is pretty cool. Minor quibbles. I am not sure that 2 drinks every single day makes someone a moderate drinker. That’s a lot of alcohol a week.
I am skeptical of the penetration of self-driving cars in cities with chaotic traffic and pedestrian patterns like New York and many European cities. This cars will need a lot more training to learn the ability to “communicate” by slowly inching forward and recognizing when another car or person is letting them go.
I really appreciate this type of post. It's what I used to try to 'manually' get out of reading a half dozen other Substacks and spending too much time on Twitter. A lot of these are little gems that enrich our understanding of larger themes (or are seeds for topics that get debated a bunch). Just the right amount of detail and contextualization. And fully agree on the world philosophy!
Love the last one. It’s the message in Hans Rosling’s Factfulness. We have made a ton of progress. We should celebrate that progress and acknowledge we can do better
Derek, Did Covid "vaccines" prevent infection? No. Did they stop the transmission of infection? No. Then how do you say the Covid pandemic "ended when it did largely because of vaccines."
Love this kind of post.
Don't love that many charts here manipulated the image. If the Y axis isn't zero, someone is selling you a story.
Manipulators frequently sell the "relative" rather than the more important "absolute."
Thanks so much for this post Derek. Full of very interesting and generally positive information.
I hold many views that appear to be core elements of your own beliefs.
I am looking forward to engaging with you and your work regularly in the future.
Let’s go!
Thanks for putting this together.
How carefully do they word the question on getting your news from "news articles" versus "social" media? Like if I get my news from a curated X list of the NYT, WaPo, and WSJ, and I respond to the poll "social media," I'd pretty clearly still argue that is "news articles" even if I'm never clicking the links.
Regarding #5 and alcohol: former WaPo wine critic Dave McIntyre, who has his own great Substack, calls this the New Prohibition era. As I commented on one of his recent Substack articles, considering wine and beer have been consumed for more than 8000 years by humans, it must truly be a wonder to physicians and scientists who promote abstinence that the species has survived this long.
Alcohol has been consumed for 8000+ years. The internet has been "consumed" for 30, and the iPhone for 18. Which of the three (Alcohol, Internet, iPhone) has been safety tested the most? And the funny part is while young adults eschew alcohol, they use the internet and smart phones more than anyone!
Interesting piece: two comments.
One: 40 years ago you needed a machine shop and a large staff to run a paper mill, my uncle worked in one. They constantly had to repair pumps and machines of all types. Today the entire production handles higher volume at 1/100th the staff. Water pumps don’t break down every few months, they break down every few decades - quality is staggering. You don’t have a machine shop and staff at near the same level.
We won’t “return” to manufacturing with low quality machinery so we won’t return to those kinds of employment setups.
Two: AI is a very peculiar tool, in that it is a universal simulator. If you run call centers it’s a call center agent. If you run procurement it can write contracts, RFI, RFP, RFQ. It can build marketing plans, sales proposals, write programs, create orders, on and on.
As secretarial pools are a thing of the past, jobs will be replaced. It’s not quite tractor or a spreadsheet, it’s a person.
Very informative
You should do more book interviews than Ezra :-) I also think it's insulting to tell Zoomers they're having less sex because they're drinking less alcohol.
The truth often insults some people.
Super pedantic, but it's not Jevon's paradox, it's "Jevons paradox", the person was named Jevons
"The richest 10 percent of Americans now account for roughly half of all US consumer spending"
That is a shocking! There is a mismatch with the graphic which shows high income not wealth, but the troubling consequences are similar.
This is fantastic. Is there a better journalist on Substack right now? Mr. Thompson is as the kids (used to?) say, killing it.
On Tyler Cowens show, Steven Pinker made reference to you as a quote stirring liberal figure quote, although he then noted that there aren't enough great literal thinkers under the age of 55. What is missing from the discourse that would have the greater pull on people who are in there 30s and 40s to grapple constructively liberal ideas dismiss them out of hand because a lot of these questions appear in the mainstream discourse to be " asked and answered ", and why did culture seem to stop rewarding liberalism as a point of prestige?
This is pretty cool. Minor quibbles. I am not sure that 2 drinks every single day makes someone a moderate drinker. That’s a lot of alcohol a week.
I am skeptical of the penetration of self-driving cars in cities with chaotic traffic and pedestrian patterns like New York and many European cities. This cars will need a lot more training to learn the ability to “communicate” by slowly inching forward and recognizing when another car or person is letting them go.